Job Polarization
From The AI Survival Guide by Ace Eddleman
Job polarization is the split I expect AI to force on the labor market: a small set of extremely well-paid jobs at the top and a large pool of low-paid, gig-style work at the bottom. Two kinds of work land in the well-paid group: jobs directly tied to AI (like machine learning engineers) and jobs that are very hard to automate (like plumbers).
How the squeeze works
Businesses always have an incentive to shrink payroll, and AI hands them better ways to do it. One person can already start and run a successful business using cheap tools and contracted labor. Expect companies to keep finding ways around full-time hires, and the gig economy (selling labor in small, cheap bursts on platforms like Uber and Instacart) to keep growing.
Software engineering shows the split already. Elite engineers, especially those building AI systems, command enormous salaries. Mid-level developers who mostly write routine code are getting squeezed hard.
Why this time is (probably) different
Optimists point out that new technology has always created more jobs than it destroyed. I can’t help but think that line of thought is delusional this time, for four reasons:
- The fallback jobs are going too. Laid-off workers used to survive on fast food, construction or janitorial work while they retrained. Automated ordering and food prep are closing that door, and gig platforms are looking to replace their humans using their own massive datasets.
- Reskilling is too slow. Labor markets shift so fast that by the time you’re qualified for a new job, it may be irrelevant or badly paid.
- Older workers get stranded. Someone within ten years of retirement who loses their job may never find another, if only because of employers’ bias against older workers.
- Nobody is coming to save you. Universal basic income is an open question, and my bet is that large parts of the population will suffer before anything changes. For now, assume you’re on your own.
Where to stand
Aim for one of the two protected ends: work tied to building and using AI, or work too ambiguous or physical to automate. The middle is where the squeeze is.
Common questions
What is job polarization?
A labor market splitting into high-paid jobs at the top and low-paid jobs at the bottom while the middle hollows out. AI accelerates it.
Which jobs will stay well paid as AI spreads?
Jobs directly tied to AI, such as machine learning engineers, and jobs that are very hard to automate, such as plumbing and other skilled physical trades.